March Break 2017. The week it all changed!

If you recall, last year at the end of February, all everyone could talk about was house prices and the staggering, eye-popping price increases year over year. At one point, I recall someone showing me a graph that indicated Aurora was up 44% and Newmarket was up 38%. It was mind-numbing even trying to keep pace with the daily record setting trends.

And then, just like that, it changed. 

Gary Keller, in his book entitled SHIFT, talks about the U.S. collapse in 2008. He references that shifts in a market are slow on a National level and virtually instant at the Local level. Well, that could not be closer to the reality in our Team's market areas last year. I recall sitting in an Open House in Aurora's Bayview Wellington neighbourhood pondering where the heck were all the buyers. The small townhome I was sitting in was not the typical product affected by the March Break exodus. However, at the time, I attributed a very quiet Saturday afternoon to March Break absenteeism. 

It only took a couple of weeks for me to shift my thinking from "Oh, it's just March Break." to "OMG, something much bigger is happening here."

Then the rest of 2017 occurred. I won't belabour last year. Our various blogs covered it all pretty well and you are more than welcome to review those.

Last week, the Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB) released its February sales data and it reminded me that although our prices are most definitely down, we have a lot to be grateful for in that house price increases do remain above the rate of inflation AND most other investment opportunities. Real Estate is still a great place to put your money. According to TREB, although house prices are down 12.4% month over month (Feb. 17 : Feb. 18); we still sit a very impressive 12% above where prices were in Feb. 2016. So take a deep breath and give yourself an 'attaboy' for staying the course and not allowing panic or fear to creep into your decision making process!

Which got me to pondering... if the overall TREB numbers indicate a positive trend, how would the data more specifically look in our Team's various trading communities? The chart below shows those areas and that overall our market is not one of doom and gloom. Rather, a price drop which followed a proportionately corresponding  price increase - and we are right back to where we should be. Our market is stable again. We have survived the new Mortgage Stress Test and the first couple of rate increases. We survived the plunge in prices. AND WE ARE STILL STRONG!

Average Price
February 2016
Average Price
February 2017
Average Price
February 2018
% change since February 2017
% change since
February 2016
East Gwillimbury
Richmond Hill

 Interesting that in December 2016 I had hinted that the Innisfil community (and South Barrie) could likely be one of the best opportunities moving forward for over-all equity growth. (2017: The Year Ahead) And here we are, about 14 months later, and Innisfil has shown the smallest loss year over year AND the largest overall growth of equity in the past 2 years! No small coincidence that we have been encouraging more and more of our clients to consider going up the west side of Cooks Bay rather than toward Georgina. The GO Transit expansion plans coupled with all the new builder inventory in the Yonge Street corridor of Innisfil have created what appears to be our next best housing opportunity (or at least one of the best!).

Curious What Your House Is Worth In Our Market?  CLICK HERE!

Just Want To Chat And Explore Your Options?  CLICK HERE!


Perhaps you know someone right now looking for a great home? We would sure appreciate the opportunity to help someone you care about find a great home! Here is our current list of homes on the market. 

50 Mill St, Aurora, Ontario L4G 2R9 | Michael Tough Realty Group

Welcome To A Wonderful Part Of Aurora Charm And History*This Superb Century Home Offers A ...

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70 Woodroof Cres, Aurora, Ontario L4G7H4 | Michael Tough Realty Group

Superb Location Overlooking Arboretum*Step Out Your Front Door To Stunning Nature And Walk...

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273 Kirkvalley Cres, Aurora, Ontario L4G7S2 | Michael Tough Realty Group

Spacious 3 Storey Townhome With Private Backyard And Overlooking Pond. Main Floor With Din...

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And if you know someone who is just about to start looking, we would welcome the opportunity to meet them and show them one of our great new listings coming to the market in the next few weeks:

48 Wyatt Lane - 2 Storey Condo Townhome. 2 Bed, 2 Bath, Bayview Wellington (Aurora)

1948 Mill Street  - 2 Storey Detached. 4 Bed, 3 Bath, Alcona (Innisfil) - Click for sneak peak of photos!

1914 Emerald Court - 2 Storey Detached. 4+1 Bed, 3 Bath, Alcona (Innisfil) - Click for sneak peak of photos!

56 Haverhill Terrace - 2 Storey Detached. 3+1 Bed, 4 bath, Bayview Wellington (Aurora)

35 Turnbridge Road - 2 Storey Detached. 4 Bed, 4 Bath, Bayview Wellington (Aurora)





East Gwillimbury